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POISSON Function (Gnumeric)

Statistical Intermediate Gnumeric

POISSON returns the probability of an event count under a Poisson model.

Verification status: Selected formulas were recalculated with Gnumeric 1.12.57 using ssconvert and retained workbook results. Gnumeric 1.12.62 was source-checked only; this does not establish every edge case. How formula examples are checked

Quick answer: =POISSON(0,3,FALSE()) returns approximately 0.049787068368. POISSON returns the probability of an event count under a Poisson model. The last argument chooses exactly x events or the cumulative probability of at most x events.

Availability and version history

  • Introduced: First release not established; this name is present in the tested Gnumeric 1.12.57 and the cited 1.12.62 source.
  • Availability: Supported in Gnumeric 1.12.62 according to its function-specific registration. No retirement endpoint is established.
  • Scope: Desktop Gnumeric with the fn-stat module enabled. Examples use English comma-separated formulas.
  • Checked: October 14, 2026. Reference and boundary tables were recalculated by Gnumeric 1.12.57 and checked independently. The 1.12.62 contract was source-checked, not executed.

What the result means

For mean λ>0, the mass at integer x is exp(−λ)λ^x/x!. Cumulative mode sums this mass from 0 through x. The model has equal mean and variance and assumes an appropriate constant-rate independent-event process; the function does not establish those assumptions from a count. Official POISSON reference.

Syntax and arguments

=POISSON(x,mean,cumulative)
Argument Meaning
x Nonnegative count of events.
mean Strictly positive expected count for the same interval.
cumulative TRUE() for at most x events; FALSE() for exactly x.

All arguments shown are required. Use numeric cells or numeric inputs. The formulas use decimal points and commas; localized entry conventions require separate checks. Gnumeric 1.12.62 help and evaluator.

Reproducible examples

Enter each formula in a separate cell. The displayed references are rounded to twelve decimal places and agree with the recorded Gnumeric 1.12.57 recalculation within ordinary floating-point precision. Keep the stored result for subsequent calculations.

Formula Result, approximately
=POISSON(0,3,FALSE()) 0.049787068368
=POISSON(1,3,FALSE()) 0.149361205104
=POISSON(2,3,FALSE()) 0.224041807655
=POISSON(3,3,FALSE()) 0.224041807655
=POISSON(2,3,TRUE()) 0.423190081127
=POISSON(5,3,TRUE()) 0.916082057969
=POISSON(3,6,FALSE()) 0.08923507836
=POISSON(10,10,FALSE()) 0.125110035721

Practical worksheet

Suppose a model expects three arrivals during a specified interval. Put count 2 in A2 and mean 3 in B2. =POISSON(A2,B2,FALSE()) gives approximately 0.224041807655, the chance of exactly two arrivals. =POISSON(A2,B2,TRUE()) gives approximately 0.423190081127, the chance of at most two.

Use a mean for the same interval as the count. A rate of six arrivals per hour corresponds to mean 3 in half an hour under the constant-rate model.

Advanced examples and checks

Calculate “at least” without losing one count

The probability of at least three events is =1-POISSON(2,3,TRUE()), approximately 0.576809918873. Subtracting POISSON(3,3,TRUE()) would instead give the probability of at least four. Write the desired inequality beside the cell.

The probability of zero arrivals during the half-hour interval is =POISSON(0,3,FALSE()), approximately 0.049787068368. This agrees with EXP(−3), providing a simple independent special-case check. For very tiny upper tails, subtracting a value rounded near 1 can lose relative accuracy.

Boundaries and common mistakes

Gnumeric requires mean>0: mean=0 returns #NUM!, even though a mathematical degenerate Poisson distribution can be defined at zero. Do not copy another spreadsheet’s zero-mean output. Event counts are floored before the nonnegative guard, so −0.1 is rejected rather than treated as zero. Use integer counts. All three arguments are required.

The following are observed cell results from the same 1.12.57 command-line recalculation. F5 was genuinely empty. A blank is not necessarily an omitted argument or a valid observation, so validate required data instead of treating every defaulted zero as intentional.

Formula Observed in Gnumeric 1.12.57
=POISSON(0,0,FALSE()) #NUM!
=POISSON(2.9,3,FALSE()) 0.224041807655
=POISSON(-0.1,3,TRUE()) #NUM!
=POISSON(F5,3,FALSE()) 0.049787068368

The fixtures do not certify every locale, extreme tail, imported type or newer binary build. The current wrapper agrees with the documented argument contract; shared numerical helpers can change between releases.