OPT_PROB_HIT in Collabora Office: Barrier-Hitting Probability

=OPT_PROB_HIT(Spot; Volatility; Drift; Maturity; LowerBarrier; UpperBarrier)

The vendor reference defines a six-argument function. Its descriptive text also includes a stray Strike entry; Strike is not an argument and must not be appended to the formula. The exact entry point confirms the six inputs.

Spot is positive; Volatility is positive annual volatility expressed as a decimal, such as 0.2 for 20%. Drift is the annual proportional price drift μ, not the mean of log returns. Maturity is nonnegative time in years. Zero disables the corresponding lower or upper barrier. Use one consistent price unit for Spot and enabled barriers.

The model is dS/S = μ dt + σ dW. Thus log(S at T / initial S) has mean (μ−σ²/2)T and variance σ²T. These assumptions describe continuous diffusion with constant parameters; they do not estimate μ or σ from your worksheet, allow jumps, or make the output an empirical forecast. This guide is model arithmetic, not a recommendation to enter a trade.

Enter these parameter/value pairs in A1:B7:

=OPT_PROB_HIT(B2;B3;B4;B5;B6;B7) has independently expected probability 0.412711943. Format it as a percentage if desired; do not multiply by 100 and also apply percentage formatting.

An independent reflection-principle check uses a=ln(120/100), d=0.05−0.2²/2=0.03, and s=0.2√1=0.2. With Φ denoting the standard-normal CDF, the upper-hit probability is:

Φ((dT−a)/s) + exp(2da/σ²) × Φ((−dT−a)/s)

Both terms matter. The first is the terminal upper-tail probability; the second accounts for paths that crossed 120 and returned below it. Direct evaluation gives the result above. This is a one-enabled-upper-barrier control, not a formula for arbitrarily adding two barrier probabilities.

For the same inputs, the probability of ending above 120 is only 0.223147064, about 22.31%. It is Φ((0.03−ln(1.2))/0.2). The larger 41.27% hit probability includes additional paths that finish below the barrier.

Do not use 1−OPT_PROB_INMONEY(...) as a universal replacement for OPT_PROB_HIT. OPT_PROB_INMONEY concerns the terminal price interval and optional strike. It does not require that the path stayed within that interval. A workbook that labels the two outputs identically loses this important distinction.

Change B6 to 80 and B7 to 0, keeping other parameters unchanged. =OPT_PROB_HIT(100;0.2;0.05;1;80;0) independently gives 0.222368889.

For a lower barrier, use distance a=ln(100/80) and replace d by −d in the upper-barrier reflection formula. This is a distinct calculation with upward price drift working against the lower crossing. Simply changing ln(120/100) to ln(100/80) without reversing the log drift gives the wrong model event.

With both barriers enabled, the function models hitting either boundary. Upper and lower hit events overlap, so adding two separately computed single-barrier probabilities double-counts paths that hit both. The exact helper contains separate double-barrier treatment. No two-barrier numerical example is certified by this guide’s single-barrier controls.

The probability helper implements this as one minus a continuously monitored domestic no-touch value with zero discount rate and a foreign-rate setting that supplies μ. That source relationship explains why there is no independent interest-rate input here: this is a probability under the supplied drift, not a discounted option price.

For a pricing calculation using domestic rate r and foreign/carry rate rf, the risk-neutral drift is r−rf within this model. A subjective or estimated real-world μ is a different assumption. Do not quietly substitute one for the other when comparing to OPT_TOUCH.

The inspected entry point rejects nonpositive Spot, nonpositive Volatility and negative Maturity, and rejects a nonfinite helper result. It does not mean every oddly ordered barrier configuration is rejected at the entry point. Use a lower enabled barrier below Spot and an upper enabled barrier above Spot for ordinary examples. Zero time, already crossed barriers, extreme parameters and unusual barrier order require their own source/behavior review before promising a particular displayed result.

The examples were checked by independent normal-CDF calculations. They do not certify calibration quality, short-time discontinuities, arbitrary tail precision or native spreadsheet output. The most useful diagnostic is whether you have specified the right event and units before examining extra decimal places.

This guide covers the new Collabora Office desktop for Linux, identified by Flathub source tag coda-26.04.4.3-1 and commit 81339d176148d0d5c81ff05d82540f58f8aaa117. The desktop release notes and Linux package manifest establish the product mapping. The manifest is a dated source observation from October 18, 2026, not verification of an installed binary.

Versioned vendor Help, exact-commit registrations and evaluator code were reviewed on October 18, 2026. All numerical outputs in this guide are independently calculated expectations, not native Collabora observations. No Collabora application was run and no application screenshot is presented. Source availability does not establish identical Classic, Online/CODE, Windows, macOS or mobile behavior. First introduction and retirement dates are not established; no deprecation claim is made.

Examples use English names and semicolon separators. Adapt separators to the workbook’s formula settings. The documented extension function is outside standard OpenFormula 1.3; workbook portability and file-format round trips require separate checks.